Ticker Shock: Five Reasons Why H&R Block Could Mean Good Returns

Glenn Curtis  Jun 30, 2009 10:15 am

Ticker Shock: Five Reasons Why H&R Block Could Mean Good Returns
 
Tuesday's top stories and stocks with potential to move.
 

Apollo Group (APOL):
 The Arizona-based education company was out with its third-quarter earnings and it certainly looked smart. In the period ended May 31, it put up $1.26 a share, which was well ahead of the $1.12 estimate that was out there.

It also did something that often strikes my fancy: It bought back shares in the quarter. In fact, according to the release:

“During the third quarter of fiscal 2009, the Company repurchased approximately 7.2 million shares of its common stock at a weighted average purchase price of $61.62 per share for a total expenditure of $444.4 million (of which $38.8 million is included in accrued liabilities for repurchased shares that settled subsequent to May 31, 2009). On June 25, 2009, the Board of Directors authorized an increase of the share repurchase program to an aggregate of $500 million.”

That’s a big statement and something it would likely only do if it were upbeat about the future.

Some thoughts:

1. Apollo trades at about 16.6 times this year’s estimate of $3.97. I don’t think that’s totally out of line and I'm impressed that the Street is expecting it to earn $4.80 a share in 2010 (it implies an expected-growth rate of about 20.1%). If I was going to climb aboard, ideally I’d like to punch in at a little lower multiple of expected earnings.

2. The company has done a pretty good job beating out quarterly estimates this past year. However, if it ends up disappointing for some reason, the shares could take a good thumping.

3. What’s the big catalyst that’s going to take this stock higher? The shares seem like they’ve been stuck in and around this level since the earlier part of April.

4. There’s a chance the stock could get a goose in today’s session on the heels of the earnings news.

Bottom line, I’ll remain on the sidelines. I should also mention that I’m pretty happy I decided to take a pass in early April, too.

AMR Corporation (AMR):
 There was some news out last night involving the Texas-based company. According to the Associated Press: “American Airlines said Monday it plans to sell $520.1 million in debt to acquire notes secured by 20 aircraft that it owns or plans to buy in the next year.”

Frankly, I’m not expecting the news to have too much of an impact. I brought it up because it still might attract a lot of eyes.

My thoughts on this company:

1. I firmly believe that down the line, Americans will be traveling in airplanes more. But to be honest, I’d rather play the travel game by tossing my luggage into airplane-maker Boeing (BA).

2. The stock is below the $5 mark, which I see as a negative because it might take it off some brokers' radar screens. I’m also not seeing what will make it take off to the next level.

3. Although I’m a bear, I think it's important to recognize that there was some insider-buying earlier in the year. They wouldn't be dropping that kind of flash unless they were hopeful.

Have a great day!
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