As you know, the May 7 943 time/price harmonic and the June 6 950 time/price harmonic have been well respected by the S&P. Many stocks have seen substantial swings higher as the S&P churned inside this vicinity.

And therein lies the moral of the story of the prodigal investor: As long as the market maintains support -- even if that doesn’t mean ramping to new highs -- individual stocks can dance to their own drummer. In a high-level trading range, stocks can and will be "bulled" higher by their sponsorship from one quarter to another, generating some sensational bottle rockets. For example, even though the market topped out in March in 2000, there were a number of stocks that made new highs into the end of August that year.

Apple (AAPL) made a new high at the end of December 2007, despite the popular indices topping out in early October that year. The ags and oils made highs in May and June 2008 while it was still perceived by many money managers and pundits that the bull market was alive and well and "consolidating at lower levels."

While these moves were certainly eminently tradable, were they a sign of strength? They certainly weren't the stuff of buy and hold -- when the music stops, what looks like relative strength weakens dramatically. Former shelters of strength that go up simply because they're going up quickly succumb to selling pressure. The parabolic arcs of speculative spirits spin back to where they started.

It seems the critical mass of the 943 to 950 band is about to be tested. If the S&P closes above 950, the next 90 degrees of price higher is 980. Another 90 degrees higher is 1014 which coincides with an approximately three-eights retracement of the range from the 1576 high to the 666 SP low.

It's interesting that the first week of July coincides with a price of 1006 SP. Can the big funds keep the market buoyant into quarter's end? I had thought that there was a better-than-average likelihood that the market would shake out prior to a run-up into July, but time is running out on that notion. The market may have a larger date with destiny and -- critical mass -- on a move-up into July.



Ultimately, the greater critical mass will be the behavior when the second derivative rally run is either proven to be ahead of itself or proven to be full of hope. The greatest question of critical mass will be if the sphinx of debt can be equalized before the sands of inflation.