Random Thoughts: Is Iran the Run in Crude?

Todd Harrison  Jun 06, 2008 1:00 pm

Random Thoughts: Is Iran the Run in Crude?
 
Energy trading significantly higher.
 

 

Editor's Note: The following content is a compilation of thoughts from today's Buzz & Banter. It is being reproduced here for the benefit of the Minyanville community.

Gate Sniffage! - 10:05 am
 


So Ya Wanted to Be a Trader, Eh? - 10:11 am

Sooooooo, systemic risk is this ever-present, lurking, massive, cumulative demon. This, we know. The poster child for that sentiment has been Lehman (LEH), which is all of a sudden trading quite dry.  

I just said to Pep, "Do you buy Lehman calls (not common) as an upside hedge here?" I didn't, opting instead to reduce risk via selling more JP Morgan (JPM) puts. With the weekend looming, I wanna rotate and/or reduce risk rather than add more positions. 

I know, Todd-lot. But a solvent Todd-lot, at least for the time being.

Rotation Station! - 10:50 am

I've gotta tell ya, between eating, coughing, trading and writing, I've been one busy beaver this morning. In the interest of keeping ye faithful up in real-time--there's a lot going on--I share the fare without the usual snark of levity.
 

  • OK, maybe a little levity. A coupla years ago, while at a dinner, I quietly told my friend that the restaurant we were eating at had fantastic penisfish. You shoulda seen her face when she turned to the waiter and asked him about it.

  • There are alotta ways to trade--trailing stops, themes, momo--and there's no set rule other than we must adapt--but never conform--to the tape. For me, I'm a potpourri of stylistic approaches (it is Friday) but, for the most part, I'm in hit it to quit it mode.

  • In that vein, please know that I "took" (read: closed out my shorts in) CME (CME) and JPMorgan (JPM) and nibbled on a snivlet more Halliburton (HAL) puts (I couldn't help myself). If the latter matter looks like it's gonna close above $50, I'll pare it into the weekend. 

  • Again, you can do anything as long as your disciplined.

  • To tell you the truth, I'm torn on the crude short. Given the defined risk/reward, however, I'm more than happy to slap it on (and I have). If this pig ticks on the other side of USO $110 (with some wiggle), I'm outie like Cher Horowitz.

  • Did I mention that I wanted to reduce--rather than add--risk into the weekend? I would imagine that other risk managers feel the same way. Gut feel, but for what it's worth...


Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 12:29 pm
 

  • Between crude (+10% in 2 days), Boots & Coots (WEL) (+72% in last two weeks), the Air Force "resignations", the action in gold and the chatta out of Israel, it certainly feels like something is gonna go down in Iran, eh?

  • If that happens, how useful will my USO $110 stop be?

  • Along those lines, who in their right mind would wanna be short crude over the weekend?

  • Don't all arrows point towards risk reduction?

  • Aren't risk appetites and social mood the determinants of recession?

  • Y'all see how important a level S&P 1370 is?

  • Woah, you see Schlumberger (SLB) flip the downside switch?

  • While I've already ducked and covered, shouldn't the CME (CME) be down more and, given that it's not, what is that a sign of underlying demand?

  • Are we there yet?


Heads Up, Yo! - 1:00 pm

I've covered half my USO short (flat vs. where I slapped it on) with three things in mind.

1. If it hasn't faded yet, the odds of a reversal (today) diminish as a function of time.

2. Given my long-standing sense that something is gonna go down in Iran before the election, I'm not sure I wanna tempt fate and think about it all weekend while I'm playing SuperUncle in Baltimore.

3. I'm in risk reduction mode. While I'm still there (with a tight stop and some Boots & Coots (WEL) against it), there's no shame in player smaller until the smoke clears and the ranks thin.

Engine Room, More Buzz! - 1:27 pm

  • My secretary went to renew her military ID card today the base was on 'Alpha' Alert, checking cars, under cars, etc. so obviously something different about today." Minyan Ron.

  • Discipline over conviction--as a function of price rather than the above bullet--my stop was triggered on the other half of my USO short (and yes, I'm happy that I pared the position before that last pop). Win, lose or draw, there's no looking back as profits lie ahead.

  • Television's JeffMacke® makes a good point in that a little perspective goes a long way. Yes, we're back to Wednesday's levels. Fair warning though, if we break S&P 1370, you're gonna see a water fall that would make Niagra Falls blush.

  • The drillers, for their part, are trading like Boofy, the confused cross-dressing bull-bear. I'm right there with 'em, which is why, as I just told Doug Kass, I'm in risk reduction mode into the weekend. Long dry powder, short clam chowda.

  • I like Lance Lewis' Buzz, a lot. 

    R.P.
Rate this article:  (0 Votes)
Comments (4) See All Comments »
06-06-2008, 1:03 pm
I, for one, appreciate Todd's thought process on USO. He's highlighted many of the crosscurrents involved in a unique fashion. It's up to the trader to act in a disciplined manner. The wild swings make profit possible. It's
Read More
06-06-2008, 1:36 pm
oil short thing for weeks and its frickin' ridiculous already.. how are u doing any readers any good? are you really so nimble that you are not getting mauled in these trades? crude is up how much and making all time hi's as we speak?
Read More
06-06-2008, 2:32 pm
Obviously, Crude cannot go up forever... so as prices showed signs of momentary excess (to $135), then reversal, the 'easy trade' was to short futures.

(then this happens - which explains why the words 'easy trade�
Read More
06-06-2008, 3:47 pm
...follow Todd's mantra as much as possible. Example #1, bought some out of the money Oct puts on MS and BAC yesterday (two of the largest Commercial Property lenders out there). Was prepared to hold the position past earnings for each. Both
Read More
discuss this article and more on the mv exchange
Positions in HAL, CME, JPM, USO, WEL

Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options.  Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.



Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Ticker Talk
Popular Tickers:
SPX »AMZN »F »
Select
  •  
Talk Now
Share this Talk on your site:
Send us your feedback

Our Professors

rss article alert