First Leg of Bear Market is Over

Jeffrey Cooper  Nov 25, 2008 9:40 am

First Leg of Bear Market is Over
 
The low for the year appears to be in.
 

 
Strategy: The market has come far, fast. There are millions of shares that were bought at the “all in test” of the October 10 lows that are looking to ‘get even’. The market has stabbed through this level and it would not be surprising to see an hourly shakeout today but I would not become too bearish on the first sharp shakeout. The market handle its first ‘swoon’ and fainting spell late yesterday when it looked as if another last half hour helter skelter play might play out. It did not. Be that as it may today could shape up as a small corrective day but I think there is a better than average likelihood that Wednesday will be the high of the week.



The S&P has still not traced out two consecutive higher highs so a higher high midday today could be a level with which to lock up some profits rather than press. A second higher high today would leave a -1 + 2 sell set up. If the market has legitimately turned up then the behavior from that set up will be telling. Likewise, the first turn up of the 3 day chart and the next tag of the 20 dma will be levels and patterns to keep on the radar.



The 20 dma is just below 900 S&P while the weekly Swing Chart will turn up on trade above out old friend 882 (a master square). As long as 824 S&P holds (another master square) I would look to buy dips, especially on any pullback that holds that level. A turndown in the daily swing chart on Wednesday morning on trade below whatever today’s low is would set up a potentially bullish Catapult play.

Trading Lessons:









Rate this article:  (0 Votes)
Comments (3) See All Comments »
11-25-2008, 3:19 pm
Jeff

You failed to include the physiological effects of a salt and peppered popcornfart's waffling on the exchange floor with a full blown case of its own liquidity that appears to have grown legs going both ways struggling to gain
Read More
11-26-2008, 2:55 pm
about your report is the complete clarity of your writing, and the absence of jargon and gibberish. Where do I sign up?
Read More
12-11-2008, 10:39 pm
decided to check this earlier post by jeffrey (after reading today's "truth of the tape") - very interesting reading :-)

definitely gonna have to check out his daily service for future ref when i'll have more time
Read More
discuss this article and more on the mv exchange
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options.  Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.



The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Ticker Talk
Popular Tickers:
SPX »AMZN »RIMM »
Select
  •  
Talk Now
Share this Talk on your site:
Send us your feedback

Our Professors

rss article alert