Regression to the Mean

Sean Udall  Dec 30, 2008 9:45 am

Regression to the Mean
 
If it comes to pass, 2009 should produce materially highers returns.
 

 
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12-30-2008, 12:19 pm
Most optimistic forecast I've seen yet.

It all depends on people keeping their jobs and/or paying their bills.

I don't doubt a rally at some point, but I think it will have feet of clay.

Means are
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12-30-2008, 9:47 pm
Try looking at the reversion to the mean in terms of historical PE ratio and getting back to 9% average annual return is a pipe dream unless S&P profits get above $100 for the group. Good luck getting to that point any time soon. Reverting to a
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12-31-2008, 12:25 am
I hope you're right, but I have little faith that you are...
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12-31-2008, 9:25 am
Regression to the true Mean will happen the question is what is true. That most likely will be lower than the historic. But, the good news is that it is defiantly higher than where we are now.
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12-31-2008, 10:57 am
..for the steer to OMTR. Gives me something to look into while the Tournament of Roses is on the tube. (^_^)
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