Regression to the Mean

Sean Udall  Dec 30, 2008 9:45 am

Regression to the Mean
 
If it comes to pass, 2009 should produce materially highers returns.
 

 

8. I think we'll see at least a couple of really strong surges (50% or greater) out of the collective of Google, Apple (AAPL), Research In Motion (RIMM), Baidu (BIDU) and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG).

9. While many will look at 2009 as the year of the smartphone, I actually think 2008 was - and it will just become accepted that in 2009 and beyond, it's smartphones or nothing. This is one of the reasons I think we'll see Google, Apple and Research In Motion collectively perform well in volatile bursts next year.

10. Regression to the mean. This may be the most profound theme, and if it comes to fruition to any degree, then 2009-2010 should produce materially higher returns than expected. We're currently at record levels for the worst rolling 10-year period in the stock market and worst calendar year by a long shot. To put it plainly, we need earth-shattering returns to completely close the gap and get back to the S&P's 9% plus long-term average.



11. Despite some popular contrary opinions on the demise of Yahoo (YHOO) -- and Internet search advertising in general -- I think we'll still see a stunning buyout or comeback.

Content is still king, and will be rewarded as such in even a slightly better economy. In short, traditional media gets weaker and online media stronger. This bodes well for Google, ValueClick (VCLK), Omniture (OMTR) and, yes, Yahoo as it finally finds a way to monetize traffic. Meanwhile, expect Google to keep improving its search algorithms and Omniture to reap rewards from all the great deals signed in 2008.

12. The solar space, which has been tortured, sees stimulus support and fulfills its promise as a large job creator. This has a materially positive impact on SunPower Corporation (SPWRA), MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), Corning Inc. (GLW) and LDK Solar (LDK) - and further reduce the valuation gap between SunPower and First Solar (FSLR).

13. The US stock market rises by close to 25% as measured by the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ does even better. The financial stocks -- partculary the surviving, best- capitalized banks -- perform well as a refinancing boom, dominant market share and the best interest rate margins in decades help produce substantial profits.

Smaller writedowns could occur because of the newer, less strigent rules related to mark- to-market accounting. FAS 157 accounting rules will also be reevaluated under the Obama administration. Furthermore, the resurgence in the financial space adds confidence to the rest of the market and Big Beta comes back to the fore.

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Comments (5) See All Comments »
12-30-2008, 12:19 pm
Most optimistic forecast I've seen yet.

It all depends on people keeping their jobs and/or paying their bills.

I don't doubt a rally at some point, but I think it will have feet of clay.

Means are
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12-30-2008, 9:47 pm
Try looking at the reversion to the mean in terms of historical PE ratio and getting back to 9% average annual return is a pipe dream unless S&P profits get above $100 for the group. Good luck getting to that point any time soon. Reverting to a
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12-31-2008, 12:25 am
I hope you're right, but I have little faith that you are...
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12-31-2008, 9:25 am
Regression to the true Mean will happen the question is what is true. That most likely will be lower than the historic. But, the good news is that it is defiantly higher than where we are now.
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12-31-2008, 10:57 am
..for the steer to OMTR. Gives me something to look into while the Tournament of Roses is on the tube. (^_^)
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