Six Reasons to Buy Stocks Now Sean Udall Jun 15, 2009 9:55 am |
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3. The rise in interest rates will kill the rally. Frankly, this is the worst one yet, though it seems to be the most debated recently. I'll talk about this in another piece, but this rise in yields may be the most bullish thing I’ve seen this year except for the FASB relaxation effectively overturning FAS 157.
4. Lastly, according to many metrics, true growth stocks have likely never been cheaper. I use PEGs and normalized EPS most frequently, but PSRs and price to book, or net cash would tell the same story. This is further compounded if you back net cash out of the PEGs or normalize EPS numbers. This is because net cash has exploded while EPS has stayed positive, and cash burns have been low to non-existent.
My point here is that I think people are now looking for the holy grail to tell them where the market is heading next: economic numbers, next-quarter earnings, or another major change in sentiment. I think all these factors will become clear quite soon, but in the meantime, stocks are starting to, once again, reflect some modicum of fundamental pricing attributes. Moreover, I think truly powerful fundamental stories and drivers will really began to propel stocks (both higher and lower).
Over most of the last year, you have had to watch the market and basically ignore stock fundamentals, as even the best were pounded into oblivion by overwhelming market pressure. Now -- even though market pressure is still dictating the bulk of directional stock movement -- fundamental stories are starting to stick.
Look at Visa (V), Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan (JPM), Apple (AAPL), and Baidu (BIDU). Fundamentals are starting to overwhelm market direction. More than once, this occurred in a single day.
Another noteworthy example is First Solar (FSLR). The solars have been ripping, and this stock is stuck, since I believe people are coming around to my view that silicon will swamp thin-film technology. I’ll still let the chart dictate what I do on First Solar, but I think this is a key tell for market differentiation. Additionally, First Solar is in a war between industry-leading, prior EPS results and a future with more questions emerging. I fully believe I’m early on its demise, but will monitor it closely.
Now, it’s still largely a market where differentiation is lacking and investors are focusing on major market dynamics, trading ETFs, and greatly ignoring stock fundamentals. The market is still stuck in beta-tacking mode to a large degree. Futures have an undue influence on daily price swings as we're still navigating through a no-uptick world.
All that being said, I'm seeing emerging signs that some stories are sticking. Occasionally, fundamentals are being borne out. And broadly speaking, stock-specific fundamentals are being reflected in relative alpha -- especially on a risk-adjusted basis. And again, true growth stocks have probably never been cheaper.So give me your Apples, your Googles (GOOG), and your Visas. Give me your poor huddled masses of beaten-down growth bargains. I’ll focus on these names all day long with the metrics laid out above -- while turning down the noise that everyone else seems to want to turn up.
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