Corporations won't likely accept hackers' promises, and they'll have no choice but to upgrade to Windows 7. And this time, they won’t have to do the usual waiting for Service Pack 2 - the inevitable set of bug fixes for the original product. Vista’s Service Pack 2 is already out, and in many ways, Windows 7 is Service Pack 3. Expectations created by Vista for Windows 7 are incredibly low for Microsoft, but 7’s success is likely to be very high.

Other Reasons to Go Bing

There's more: Aside from Windows 7, there's plenty of promise in other products that aren't built into Microsoft's stock. Bing -- a new improved  search engine -- is now out, and the presentation I’ve seen of it is very impressive. Office 2010 will bring a subscription-based office onto the Web, which may  fix a longstanding consumer piracy issue. (I personally don’t know a single person who actually bought a copy of Office for home use. Maybe I need new friends, but people just don’t want to pay $300-400 for something they consider their birthright.)

With Office Live, Microsoft will charge an annual fee, and you’ll get a Web product that has the same look and feel of the Office you're accustomed to using at work.

This ugly duckling isn't hanging by a thread. Microsoft still has Windows, server products, and Office; holds a leading position in gaming; generates billions of dollars of free cash flow; has $23 billion of cash; and its debt will likely be trading at lower yields than Treasuries very soon.

But the best part: There's nothing positive priced into this stock, which trades at about 10 times free cash flow. It's incredibly cheap. Buying it now is like a talent agent signing Susan Boyle the day before she went on stage.